Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
