Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
